Why is Trump Bribing Putin?

October 22, 2026

What's behind Trump's foreign policy maneuvers of the past few weeks?

On the heels of a two hour phone call with Putin on October 9, Trump announced a deal to lower diesel prices. In exchange for exports of diesel fuel Russia would get sanctions relief. Within a day or so, energy experts insisted that the deal's effect on diesel prices would be nil. Media pundits derided it as an crass attempt to improve Republicans' chances in the midterms.

To that end, Trump ordered Zelensky to refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, casting him as the cause of high fuel prices. Trump then threatened to deprive Ukraine of critical intelligence and weaponry if the attacks continued. In the past week Trump actually executed the threats, including a drop in Starshield connectivity. As the final betrayal of Ukraine, Trump postponed the tougher Russian sanctions authorized by Lindsey Graham's Bill.

I believe that these down payments to Putin aim for bigger returns than the mirage of lower diesel prices.

The duo of Russia and China are the principle supporters of Iran as well as the main perpetrators of the Ukraine war. So, the real purpose of generous sanctions relief is to buy the duo's help in solving Trump's Iran quagmire. Trump is selling out Ukraine in exchange for any sign of progress on Iran that will rescue him from ignominy.

It's worth noting that on October 19 the Foreign Ministers of Russia and Iran met in Tehran to discuss the status of the war and diplomatic efforts with the U.S. Yesterday, Putin told Witkoff that he wanted to help resolve the dispute between Iran and the United States. Furthermore, the WSJ reported that Putin, Xi and Trump are scheduled to discuss Ukraine at the Asian Pacific Economic Summit on November 18. I suspect that Iran will be on the table.

So, what might the duo's rescue of Trump look like?

Trump's willingness to betray an ally far exceeds that of the duo. While Trump's courting of Putin harms Ukraine in a substantial way, I believe that whatever concession the duo negotiates with Iran will be purely symbolic. The most Trump will get is a "cosmetic breakthrough" that signals progress toward peace and temporarily makes him look good.

Something like this, for example:

Trump announces a breakthrough. Tehran has agreed to allow American scientists to accompany IAEA inspectors to visit all nuclear facilities for the purpose of whatever, in exchange for lifting the blockade on Iranian oil. (Iran may agree to such a distraction because by focusing on Trump's justification for war - the nuclear threat - Iran's Hormuz leverage remains unchallenged).