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Alvin Bragg's Indictment: A Pro-Trump Conspiracy

April 2023

In the 2021 race for Manhattan DA, Alvin Bragg promised to hold Trump "accountable." But once in office he sensibly decided to table the hush-money case because of its legal frailty. Also, prosecuting a sex scandal would reward Trump with the media spotlight and expose the DA as a hypocrite. After all, candidate Bragg ran on the promise not to prosecute petty offenses.

So, Bragg's early decision made political sense. Why hand Trump the media megaphone, especially at a time when his political fortunes were sinking? Following the January 6 debacle Trump's job approval dropped 9 points, mostly from the reaction of Republicans. Then, after the the mid-term elections failed to deliver a red wave, and Trump-anointed candidates lost most of the toss-up races, his esteem among Republicans fell again. Challengers for the 2024 presidential nomination emerged, most notably Ron Desantis. By February 2023, Polls of Republican voters showed Desantis running neck and neck with the former President. The Republican rank-and-file seemed to be searching for an incarnation of Trumpism without the warts.

Then, incredibly, on Mar 30, 2023, Alvin Bragg rescued trump from political limbo by indicting him on 34 charges related to hush money payments. In one stroke, Bragg engineered a spectacular resurrection of Trump's political mojo. The indictment returned the media spotlight to Trump, and substantiated his complaint that the the Democrats are pursuing a political witch-hunt. Almost immediately, registered republicans closed ranks around their persecuted leader, and boosted his war chest by $4 million.

Following the indictment, YouGov polls of republican preferences for the presidential nomination found that Trump's lead over Desantis shot up by by 16 percentage points. As of April 30, Trump is ahead by 36 points; and 11 Congressmen from Desantis' home state of Florida have endorsed Trump. Thanks to Bragg, Trump's preeminence in the Party has been solidified, and Desantis' balloon deflated.

So, why would Bragg throw a lifeline to Trump? The answer is conspiratorial.

In truth, Bragg was just one cog in the wheel of political machination. The decision to indict emanated from a conspiracy of political strategists at the highest level. The political implications of prosecuting a former President are national in scope, so Bragg the loyal Democrat orchestrated his decision with the White House and the Party's political technocrats.

And those experts concluded that a Trump candidacy offers the best chance of a Democrat (Biden) victory in 2024. So, to boost Trump's chances of winning the republican nomination, Bragg was given the greenlight to make him look like a victim of political persecution.

In fact, the data suggest that the narcissistic "orange man" may be the only opponent Biden can beat. Since January, most polls of the 2024 presidential matchups find that Biden fares significantly better against Trump than the relatively unknown Ron Desantis. For example, the March 29 Quinnipiac poll shows Biden losing to Desantis by two points, but beating Trump by the same margin. Because of doddering Joe's dismal job-approval rating, the electorate is primed to swing toward any reasonable Republican who's not Trump.

Unfortunately replacing unpopular Biden with another candidate is problematic for two reasons. First, the DNC has already rigged the primaries in Biden's favor by replacing Iowa with South Carolina as the lead-off contest in 2024. Second, there is no charismatic baggage-free alternative waiting in the wings. Indeed, a skit on SNL spoofed the potential wannabes (Beto, Pocahontas, Mayor Pete, Kamala, and R.F.K. Jr.) as being scarier than feeble Joe.

Aside from candidate quality, a political party's generic reputation and image also matters. When likely voters are asked which party they intend to vote for in the next Congressional election, Republican candidates win by at least by one percentage point in recent polls. And on the question of which party is better at dealing with the issues, the verdict is split: Republicans are favored on the economy and border security, while Democrats win on climate change, and abortion.

So, to "snatch victory from the jaws of defeat" in 2024, the Democrats need to run against the weakest candidate, and that is Donald J. Trump. The Democrat leadership decided that an indictment of Trump would not only to ensure his nomination, but along with forthcoming legal scandals, would erode his support among the 80% of voters who are not MAGA stalwarts.

Why do Dems believe that running against Trump is their best bet in 2024?

Turnout! At 67% of registered voters, turnout for the 2020 presidential election was the highest since 1992. Not only did Biden benefit from anti-Trump turnout, but Trump garnered the the highest number of votes ever cast for a losing candidate.

The Dems believe they will capture the advantage in voter turnout in 2024, but it's certainly not because of Joe's magnetism. Rather, it's fear and loathing that will drive Democrats to turnout in record numbers. They see Trump as a threat to democracy and fundamental human rights. The farther-left see him as an existential threat, especially college educated women. The prospect of his return is too horrifying to contemplate. Driving a stake through the monster's heart is an opportunity not to be missed.

Turnout for Biden also depends on Independent voters. In his 2020 victory, Biden benefited from Trump's propensity to repel independents into the Democrat column (as well as suburbanites and moderates). With ever more aspersions about Trump, the Democrat advantage with independents is likely to persist in 2024. The latest Marist poll finds that just 37% of independents have a positive view of Trump and 2/3 of them don't want him to run for president.

This is why Biden plans to run as the experienced old pro who will combat MAGA extremism, save American democracy, and bring manufacturing jobs back to America. Biden's strategy is to demonize Trump and make him the issue, which is plausible given his trail of scandals. Supposedly, people will flock to sober Joe simply because he's not Trump. This strategy assumes that Trump will tacitly cooperate by being himself: narcissistic and intemperate. (Or Even better, he continues to whine about a stolen election).

The Democrats are confident that Trump's record turnout in 2020 will not be repeated in 2024. Although the Bragg indictment boosted his lead in the primaries by galvanizing the true-believers, it didn't reverse the growing numbers of republicans and independents who are disenchanted with Trump. Desantis' star may have faded since the indictment, but the fact remains, 45% of Republicans prefer a candidate other than Trump. On election-day 2020, Trump's net favorability score among Republicans was 84%. By January 2023 it had dropped to 62%. Likewise, in polls of how Republicans "feel" about their leader, PEW found a 19 point decline in "warm" feelings between April 2020 and October 2022. Today, 21% of Republicans think his impact on the Party has been negative.

This suggests that many republicans will be less energized to head for the polls as they were in 2020. And by targeting MAGA extremism while shunning woke lunacy, Biden will make it easy for the disenchanted to sit the election out. In short, Dems have the edge in turnout because the anti-trump vote is far more passionate than the anti-Biden vote. Trump is toxic to the other side, while Joe is merely another irritating liberal.

Indeed, Biden's potential megadonors are giddy about the elevated prospect of a Trump candidacy.

The Nightmare Scenario for the Democrats.

Trump may be an easy mark, but a Biden victory in 2024 is no slam-dunk. After all, 54% of the electorate disapprove of doddering Joe's job performance, and 70% don't want him to run.

The problem with the Dems' strategy is that it assumes Trump will tend to (mis)behave in the same undisciplined way as he did in 2020 election, that Joe will be shielded from unscripted and casual encounters, and the media will cooperate in smearing Trump.

But in the nightmare scenario, Trump actually listens to his political advisors and runs a campaign of strategic attacks and disciplined vitriol. He stifles his narcissistic whining about a stolen election. And (wonders never cease), media coverage is reasonably even handed.

Trump kicks-off the campaign by warning that Biden plans to hide from scrutiny, that he will attempt to avoid direct debate, open news conferences and townhalls. A din of criticism from the news media succeeds in flushing Biden out. As expected, his performance in unscripted situations exposes him as a dotard. Joe's gaffes and their cleanup become newsworthy. Biden looks as clownish as Trump, but in a different way.

Nikki Haley, formerly ambassador to the UN and governor of South Carolina, is Trump's running mate, all the better to embarrass Biden with his pick of Kamala Harris. Trump reminds the public that should old Joe expire prematurely, the fate of the nation will be left to the whims of Kamal who had been appointed to deal with the immigration crisis, never visited the border, and accomplished nothing.

Demonization goes both ways. Trump raises a slew of examples of Biden's incompetence and mendacity: Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation, covid school closings, and the Hunter Biden coverup. He forces Biden to defend the Democrats' extreme woke policies: porous borders, reparations, and ideological indoctrination in public schools. And most indefensible, the specter of Lia Thomson creeping into women's sports and locker-rooms.



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